Euro 2024: Previewing & predicting this summer's European Championship

Dark horses, runners and riders and who to watch out for ahead of this summer's big tournament.

Something a bit different this week, as we look ahead to the Euros kicking off in Munich’s Allianz Arena on the 14th of June when hosts Germany meet Scotland.

The football, as always, is coming thick and fast. Just as a bow has been put on the 2023/24 season, with Real Madrid coming out on top with their 15th Champions League trophy against Borussia Dortmund, attention quickly turns to the international fold as Italy look to defend their 2020 trophy against a litany of strong competition this time around.

The competition could well be influenced by three soon-to-be Real Madrid teammates; Jude Bellingham, Toni Kroos and the incoming Kylian Mbappé. England, France and Germany make up the top three favourites, respectively, but there are plenty of contenders that will make up the running, including Portugal, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands.

I get the sense that it’ll be a fairly chaotic tournament. It feels like football hasn’t stopped in about six years, so teams will be tired, minds will be drained and many sides will fail to live up to expectations, while some unlikely countries will pop up with a surprise or two. Having said all that, I do expect we’ll end up with a big-name winner. Enjoy.

The Contenders

Although England enter the tournament as short-priced favourites, there is, as ever, plenty of doubt about whether they can overcome their international hoodoo. It’ll likely be Gareth Southgate’s last tournament in charge and he arguably has his strongest squad yet, with an array of in-form young players, such as the likes of Phil Foden of Manchester City, Chelsea’s Cole Palmer, Arsenal’s Declan Rice, and, of course, the aforementioned Bellingham.

Southgate’s trouble will be piecing it all together, overcoming an occasionally suspect defense, and hoping the sheer wealth of talent helps the cream rise to the top. I’m not sure if anything less than a tournament success would be a massive disappointment, but having lost to Italy last time around, and following that up with a quarter-final defeat in Qatar, it kind of feels like now or never for them, granted it’s still early days for this new era of stars.

France have an absolutely packed squad and possibly the best player in the world in Kylian Mbappé. Back-to-back World Cup finalists and winners in 2018, they haven’t won a Euros since 2000. As with most, naturally, there are some question marks in defence and whether or not there is enough around Mbappé to get the job done. They are an elite tournament team, however, it’s hard to bet against them not reaching another final.

As for Germany, they will have plenty of say on home turf. They enter the tournament with a little bit of uncertainty following the rather steady reign of Joachim Low, his replacement Hansi Flick was a one-and-done after the 2022 World Cup. Once heralded as the next great football coach before being axed from Bayern Munich, the pressure now lands with Julian Nagelsmann to deliver gold on home soil. His squad is packed with experienced talent, with more than enough leadership and quality to go all the way. They feel like a tournament team and if they can handle the pressure of host nation, they will have a big say come the business end of the tournament.

Fifth favourites Spain are being a little bit overlooked, for me. They blitzed through qualification and will be on the march after disaster in Qatar saw them knocked out in the Last 16 by Morocco. Their squad is a mix of old and new, with super talent like Pedri and Rodri shoring up the midfield, but what sets them apart is they have a range of goalscorers in attack. I think they will walk their group and score a lot of goals.

Defending champions Italy missed out on the World Cup in Qatar, so it’s hard to know what to make of them. It felt like a now or never for a lot of that squad that have since called it a day. They weren’t particularly great in qualification, qualifying behind England, but also—it’s Italy—and it’s hard to overlook that sort of tournament pedigree. Bar one or two, their squad feels fresh, their league is in excellent shape and they will absolutely have a big say should they navigate their tough group.

There will be plenty of money on Portugal, who walked through qualification unbeaten. They are packed with world class talent and have pedigree as recent champions. I’m not sure how involved Cristiano Ronaldo will make himself be, but you look at guys like Rafael Leão and Gonçalo Ramos and know they have a shot.

Elsewhere, I think the Netherlands will disappoint again, and if there was a big team to fail to make it through the group or scrape a third place progression, it’s them. Of course, now they’ll go and win the whole thing. I think Belgium will struggle too, but I am certain that that won’t be a jinx and they absolutely won’t win it.

The Groups

(predictions to go through in bold, best third placed teams in italics)

Group A: Germany, Scotland, Switzerland, Hungary
Group B: Spain, Italy, Croatia, Albania
Group C: England, Slovenia, Denmark, Serbia
Group D: France, Austria, Netherlands, Poland
Group E: Ukraine, Belgium, Romania, Slovakia
Group F: Portugal, Turkey, Georgia, Czech Republic

Dark Horses

There should be a bolter, like Morocco at the most recent World Cup, but finding who that is is the difficult part. Having been burnt one too many times by calling Turkey ‘dark horses’, I’m staying well away from such a claim this time around, although I do have them going through ahead of Georgia and Czech Republic in Group F.

Georgia are an interesting one, and in my simulator I’ve given them plucky draws against both Turkey and Czech Republic, but I could easily see them getting a big win against either. They had the longest path to qualification having come through the play-offs and needing extra time to see off Greece, so it would be nice to see them get a big result, and they do have an international star of their own in Napoli’s Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, and every tournament needs a guy dragging his team to impossible heights.

I have Slovenia going through with England, because I think each of Serbia, Denmark and the Slovenians are on a fairly even keel, but I feel the former two have higher expectations that won’t come to fruition, and Slovenia will pick up the pieces.

Scotland are more than capable of getting results against Switzerland and Hungary and I have them going straight through, which would be a great story to follow. I’m not sure if they spring a huge shock on opening night, but a win and a draw against the other two should at least see them through as one of the best-placed third teams.

Albania were excellent in qualification, however will sadly come undone in the so-called group of death alongside Spain, Italy and Croatia.

You could pin your float to anyone out of Group E not named Belgium. At various points in my simulator I had Belgium knocked out, through in third place, or winning the group easily. They’re such a wildcard, but it doesn’t help that it’s hard to know what to expect from Romania, who absolutely blitzed through qualifying unbeaten, play-off qualifiers Ukraine, and Slovakia. In the end I had Ukraine going through on top—just about—and Romania as one of the best placed third teams. Either would be fantastic for the competition to see in the knockout rounds.

Long Goodbyes

This should be the tournament of last hurrahs for a lot of leading players.

Luka Modric, now 38, may well extend his time at Madrid for another year or so, but it will surely be his last outing at a European Championship for Croatia after over 174 caps. It would be quite a story to see him finish on top.

Likewise, his Madrid midfield compatriot Toni Kroos is expected to call it a day in football after this summer. This is his last chance at a major trophy after winning his fifth Champions League medal with Madrid, but the Euros have so far eluded him, having won the World Cup with Germany in 2014.

His goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, at 38, is also expected to call it a day after this summer.

Olivier Giroud will hang up his boots with France after this summer, after 13 years and 57 goals. He’s not likely to have a huge role for France, but if they do go deep into the tournament, expect Giroud to pop up with some important goals along the way.

And last but not least, Cristiano Ronaldo—a former winner with Portugal—will likely see out his last international tournament here. Now 39 and playing in the Saudi Arabian league, he’s appeared over 200 times for Portugal and scored 128 goals, he has been one of the all-time great international players and will have no less expectations than going all the way one more time before calling it a day.

Fresh Faces

All of the attention, naturally, is on the older guys that will be calling it a day, but there are a batch of new kids on the block who may have a big say in how the tournament is shaped.

Jude Bellingham had a fine first season at Real Madrid and is already, arguably, the talisman in the England side. He has plenty of help, but if England go all the way it’ll be because Bellingham played well. He had a disappointing Champions League final by his standards, and may not be coming into the tournament 100% fit, so how he’s managed by Southgate will be vitally important.

Elsewhere for England, I really feel they need to utilize Cole Palmer to get anywhere this summer. He had a phenomenal season for Chelsea but is in a crowded England attack. If they can find room for him I think he’ll deliver, and he has an effortless aura about him that I don’t think will be burdened by the heavy history of England’s international failures.

Bayer Leverkusen had a season for the ages, going unbeaten in domestic competition and going all the way to the Europa League final, before losing to Atalanta in Dublin. Florian Wirtz is their maestro and will be pulling the strings for Germany, so expect him to become more of a household name after this tournament before his inevitable transfer to a European powerhouse.

21-year-old Jamal Musiala of Bayern Munich is another who will feature prominently and will be expected to perform if Germany have any hopes of success.

16-year-old Lamine Yamal (born in 2007!!!) will be featuring for Spain, after a busy season at Barcelona. And of course Manchester United’s Kobbie Mainoo had an immense breakout season, but is in a packed England midfield, but I do expect him to get some minutes and really impress and would be my outside for Young Player of the Tournament interest.

Top Goalscorer: It’s not a tournament of major goalscorers, so the prediction here is the boring one: Kylian Mbappé. He’s the best player in the tournament and will be the main goalscoring outlet for one of the contenders. Harry Kane will nab a few for England and make it close.

If you’d like an outside bet I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone like the much maligned Kai Havertz sneak up with a batch of goals, whilst keep an eye on Antoine Griezmann who usually delivers on these stages. I’m not sure he plays enough to tickle the top scorer charts, but if he does, I could certainly see Cole Palmer popping up with a few goals which would make for a fun bet.

Player of the Tournament: The easy way out would be to say Kylian Mbappé, and let’s face it, it probably will be. I think Bruno Fernandes will have his best international tournament to date, while if England go well then Kane or Bellingham will be the likely winners, or maybe Phil Foden.

But if my predicted winner comes through, then I think it’ll be Toni Kroos.

Winner: The safe money is on France or England, but I can’t shake the feeling that Germany will do it on home soil. They have quality across every area of the pitch and so much experience in the likes of Kroos, Ilkay Gundogan, Antonio Rudiger and Joshua Kimmich. Defensively I think they have enough to keep things settled, and despite his hiccup in the Champions League semi-final, have one of the best goalkeepers in the world in Manuel Neuer.

What may be their undoing is finding goals without a truly potent attacker, so they will need Havert and Co. to step up massively, and Niclas Füllkrug to just bulldoze himself into a big tournament.

Their form has been patchy and they will need other things to go their way, mainly one of England or France knocking the other out in the semi-finals as they should be on the same side of the draw, but I also think Nagelsmann will be a strong tournament coach and have them well prepared, so I think the combination of coach, home comforts and a pretty decent squad squeaks them their fourth European Championship and first since 1996, beating France in the final.