For Liverpool and Bellingham, the sums never added up

Liverpool have reportedly eased off on a move for Bellingham as they face into a major squad rebuild.

"There are two tragedies in life. One is to lose your heart's desire. The other is to gain it." - George Bernard Shaw

After a long term flirtation, it seems that Liverpool’s pursuit of Borussia Dortmund midfielder Jude Bellingham lies lame in the mud. As the season has wore on, Liverpool’s issues have become more and more glaring, while Bellingham’s transfer fee was only going in one direction, thrust by another excellent season in the Bundesliga. It’s now at a stage where the Excel sheets aren’t making much sense and if Liverpool want what they have yearned for for years, they face an equally lengthy timeframe to wait for the coffers to replenish and afford to treat their other wounds.

This has gone down like a lead balloon amongst the perenially online fanbase, and adds fuel to the fire to the FSG Out blaze. Naturally, if Liverpool announce an extension to James Milner and miss out Bellingham—after multiple transfer windows of batting their eyelashes and every interaction between Bellingham and his Liverpool England teammates being held aloft—it will be seen as a complete disaster.

You could draw some hope from previous examples of the club shying way from a transfer only to pull it off with less limelight at a later date. They cooled their trail of Virgil van Dijk due to backlash from Southampton and ended up getting their man anyway. They had reportedly ended their pursuit of Alisson Becker, five months before announcing a deal with Roma relatively out of the blue.

Those were different times and for much smaller fees, granted both players became the most expensive players for their positions at the time. Philippe Coutinho’s departure helped fund much of it and Liverpool were taking shots and hitting the bullseye with unsustainable consistency on every transfer. They were piecing together a world class squad on its upward trajectory, not overhauling a team in terminal decline.

This reads like a resignation of defeat after Dortmund and Liverpool sat down to talk numbers and the butter biscuits had barely been touched before the buyers knew this transaction wasn’t going to add up. It would take a huge influx of investment for Jurgen Klopp to get his man, but to also add the other midfielders he desperately needs, in addition to another centre half, a right back, maybe another number in attack, and a potential replacement for Caoimhín Kelleher should the Irishman move on.

If this is a tactic to put other clubs off the scent and swoop in unchecked to seal the deal, Liverpool might be disappointed to find that every club with the means could and should outspend them to sign Bellingham. If this is them looking to play the long game—which has already gone on long enough—and are awaiting some extra investment this summer to be able to get at least as far as the checkout page on the transfer portal, then they are testing the patience of club, player and rivals. Bellingham simply isn’t going to wait forever while Liverpool desperately turn the couch upside down.

I’ve long called Bellingham as close to a home-run transfer as you will find in football right now. Every so often you’ll see some of the calamities atop the most expensive players ever list, where names like Romelu Lukaku feature multiple times and clubs like Barcelona splurge on big names and regret it six months later, but none have been for a centre midfielder of Bellingham’s ability, with such a high floor before we even consider how high the ceiling can rise. He is a plug and play superstar from day one, where Dortmund and England have reaped the benefits already in his young career.

He’ll be compared to Paul Pogba, who returned to his old club for a world record fee but into a situation that never seemed tailored to him. Bellingham is an entirely different player, and unlikely to find himself in such a disastrous position that Pogba did even if does end up at the same club.

There is of course risk in any major transfer, the only knock on Bellingham being the immense amount of football amassed already at just 19. With nearly 200 appearances between club and country, you’d worry for him long term in his career. A number of notable early bloomers have struggled later in their careers or had to retire prematurely.

If you spend in excess of €140million on Bellingham, you’re not managing his minutes. You’re not worrying for life down the road when he mightn’t have the same legs at 31, you’re squeezing the sponge for all its worth as soon as possible. Liverpool have done that with this squad of players and are now literally paying the price. They’d do the same with Bellingham.

From early on in the process, the numbers never seemed to add up for Liverpool. They didn’t last summer after a season on the cusp of a quadruple until late in May, and they certainly don’t now that the squad has emptied the tank and the summit of the hill has arrived for a number of players at once, contracts quickly approach their termination and the shape of the squad need a significant costly overhaul.

Blame will lay at the feet of FSG who’s tight pockets and financial prudence have allowed the squad to sour. Blame will also lie with Klopp and the recruitment department, who have somehow sleepwalked into an iceberg by not making any efforts in eight transfer windows to restock the midfield, the squad’s now most disastrous position.

Liverpool will need to go back to the drawing board and unearth the under the radar gems that got them to the top of the pile in the first place. Unfortunately, they need a couple of them, which means they have priced themselves out of the diamond at the core that they coveted for so long. But did the sums for Bellingham ever add up in the first place?